Don't Panic Over Crime Statistics
Canadian cities are safe
By Steve Lafleur
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Western Canadian cities once again dominated the Maclean’s Most
Dangerous Cities list.· Though Western Canadian cities had high rates compared to
the rest of Canada, comparisons to US cities puts these statistics in
context.· Even Edmonton, which
will lead the big city homicide rate in 2011, will have a comparable rate
to safe cities such as New York and San Francisco.·
Canadian cities actually have longer life expectancies than rural
areas.· While there is
no reason to be complacent about crime, there is also no need to panic.
Western
Canadian cities once again dominated the Maclean’s Most Dangerous Cities
list. But while the rankings are useful for policy makers, they need to be
taken with a grain of salt. Despite media hype, Canada's cities are safe.
The most visible metric on which to judge a city's safety is the homicide
rate. While it is by no means the only relevant metric, it is easily
comparable across national boundaries (as opposed to a crime severity
index), and is rarely under-reported as are some other violent crime
statistics. What may surprise some is that the Canadian city with the
highest homicide rate in 2010 was Prince George, BC, with a rate of 9.5
per 100,000 residents. Of course, that adds up to only seven victims. Two
were committed by a serial killer, which amounts to a tragic anomaly. Much
of the rest is attributable to turf wars between gangs—a cyclical
phenomenon beyond the control of police, and which rarely affects the
general population. Bigger Western cities such as Edmonton (3.1), Regina
(4.0), Saskatoon (4.4), Winnipeg (3.2), and Victoria (2.9) had among the
highest homicide rates of Canadian cities in 2010. While high by Canadian
standards, comparing to US cities (2009) like Newark, New Jersey (28.7),
Detroit (40), Baltimore (37.3), St. Louis (40.3), and New Orleans (51.7)
offers some perspective. Safer big Canadian cities such as Toronto (2.2),
Ottawa (1.5), Vancouver (1.8), and Montreal (1.9) compare favourably with
extremely safe American cities such as Seattle (3.7),
Portland, Oregon (3.4), and San Jose (2.9). Only 4 American cities
over 100,000 had lower homicide rates than Toronto, none lower than
Ottawa's. Given the 24 hour news cycle, it is understandable that people
think of cities as dangerous. For instance, Edmonton, had nearly one
homicide per week in 2011 (47). If each homicide story is in the news for
3-4 days, people are essentially hearing about murders in the city every
second day. In reality, the homicide rate
will only increase to roughly 5.6 for 2011(according to Edmonton
Police Service). That is the same rate as New York and San Francisco. This
is hardly an unflattering comparison, especially given that 2011 was
considered a freakishly bad year for Edmonton. Make no mistake: New York
and San Francisco are very safe cities. It's important to keep in mind
that a few extremely dangerous neighbourhoods tend to skew crime
statistics. Such is the case in Washington, DC. Anacostia in DC's
7th District is among the worst neighbourhoods in the developed world. In
2009 there were 75 homicides between DC's 6th and 7th Districts—a ten
miles strip south of the Potomac—4 less than all of Saskatchewan and
Manitoba in 2010. The two districts saw a total of 129 homicides in 2003
alone. The author can attest that it is a genuinely dangerous area
(despite being significantly safer than it was in the 90s). There are no
equivalent Canadian neighbourhoods. It's also important to remember that
people rarely kill strangers. The rate of homicides committed by strangers
is a mere 0.2 per hundred thousand. With rare exceptions, walking down the
street in Canada is safe. To further put the risk of homicide in context,
consider how much more likely you are to be the victim of a freak
accident. According to US Center for Disease Control data, in 2009 the
rate of deaths from unintentional injuries per hundred thousand was 38.4.
Of these, 11.2 are from motor vehicle related accidents. Another 10.3 are
poisoning deaths. Falling accounts for 8.1. Yet, few people think twice
before getting in a car or climbing a ladder. For rural people who
consider cities unsafe, it is worth noting that rural residents have
shorter life expectancies than urbanites. Part of this is because they
have less access to medical treatment, and there are less people around to
help them if they're in trouble—say, if their car breaks down in winter.
Additionally, there are 13.7 work related deaths per 100,000 agricultural
workers per year. It makes more sense to fear stepping on to a farm than
visiting Downtown Edmonton. While there is no reason to be complacent
about crime, there is also no need to panic. Canadian cities are safe.
Even Western cities. Steve Lafleur is a policy analyst with the Frontier
Centre for Public Policy.
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