Environment.
Weather or Climate change?
By Dianne Saxe*
And Jackie Campbell
It's hard to know whether
individual weather events are just random fluctuations, or whether they
are growing signs of climate change. What we need to look for is patterns-
are the weather changing? And how do the changes that are actually
happening compare to those predicted for climate change?
Three years ago, two federal government departments (Natural Resources
Canada and Health Canada) published reports on the damage climate change
was already doing to Canada, and what we should expect to follow. No one
paid much attention, but the predictions just keep coming true, in Canada
and around the world.
Time to read only one? Health Canada predicted that global warming would
increase Canadians' exposure to diseases that are endemic in animals,
including: bubonic plague. Plague? In Canada?!? The Black Death that
killed one third of the population of medieval Europe? Last week, Parks
Canada announced that a prairie dog in a national park had been found,
dead of…. bubonic plague. i
NRCan's report, From Impacts
to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 ii,
predicted summer heatwaves that are more extreme and longer, leading to
deaths, reduced crop growth and wildfires. This year looks as if it will
be the hottest year in recorded history. iii
Wildfires burned again in BC. The Yukon had 32,000 hectares of forest
burned by early June. iv
Quebec's May forest fires required people to evacuate their homes, and
burned over 350 square miles (880 square kilometers) in a week. v
a recent study says that heat
waves have already surpassed worst-case projections, but will become more
intense and unpredictable. VI
Toronto's sweltering summer pales against what is happening in other
northern countries. As we write, everyone who can is fleeing Moscow
because of fire and smoke vii;
Russia has had an estimated 15,000 deaths from heat. Viii
The heat is also predicted to reduce Russian agricultural and industrial
output by $1.5 trillion.
Here are more of Rican’s 2007 predictions, compared to recent news
reports (in italics):
Northern Canada will see decreases in permafrost, sea and lake ice and
snow cover. Recent research confirms: the Devon Island ice cap, one of the
largest and most important arctic ice masses, has been shrinking steadily
since 1985. Ix
Arctic ice cover may be at its lowest level in several thousand years. X There will be a shift in the types and number of species of plants
and animals, with competition by species that move north, and introduction
of new diseases. An epidemic of spruce bark beetle will likely lead to
decimation of white spruce trees.
There will be more frequent and intense storms in Atlantic Canada.
Sea levels will rise, increasing erosion of the coastline and flooding.
Storms in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick brought power failure and flooding
in February. Xi
Last year brought record wet weather. Xii
In Québec and Ontario, extreme
weather, like heat waves, drought, intense rain, ice- and wind-storms,
will be more frequent, stressing water, energy and transportation
infrastructures. Much of southern Ontario and Quebec is facing dry
to record dry conditions this year. Xiii
Near-record-low precipitation has deprived hydroelectricity operators of
the water levels needed to turn they turbines. Xiv
Ontario had an astonishing 29 tornados in 2009. Xv
The Prairies will see a shift
in fire and insect disturbances, and an increase in non-native species.
Water will become more scarce; wildfires and severe floods will occur more
often. Northern Prairies are exceptionally dry this year, while the south
wallows in very wet conditions. Xvi In July, heavy rain triggered the most severe flooding ever seen in
Yorkton, Saskatchewan. Xvii Calgary
had $400 million in hail damage in July, one of Canada's most expensive
storms ever. Xviii
Last year, the Red River had record floods.
Some regions of British Columbia will have more water shortages, and more
competition among uses for the water (e.g., for power, irrigation,
municipalities, recreation). A melting glacier triggered an avalanche of
mud near Pemberton this month, resulting in evacuation of 1500 residents. Xix
xx Fires
and pest infestations will affect forests. Last year, there was a 7-fold
increase in BC forest fires. Xxi The
largest known outbreak of mountain pine beetle has killed millions of
trees, and is spreading rapidly.
Coincidence or pattern? I'm worried; are you?
*Dianne
Saxe and Jackie Campbell: are environmental Law Specialists.
They
considered being among the top 25 Environmental Lawyers in the World.
