Hype
By Eric Dowd
Toronto – No new MPP in memory has attracted as much attention as Progressive Conservative leader John Tory, but it still does not guarantee him quick success.
The interest is understandable, first because Conservatives have been in government 50 of the last 62 years and their leaders almost as assured of becoming premier as a boss’s son of heading his father’s company.
The Conservatives’ only full (as distinct from interim) leader not to make it to premier in six decades was Larry Grossman in the 1980s.
He had the bad timing to take over his party when it had been rejected after 42 years in government that helped make it lazy and arrogant and few were in a rush to bring it back.
Tory’s prospects are increased further because the Liberal government of Premier Dalton McGuinty has had a shaky year-and-a-half start and been mostly low in polls.
Voters also are volatile and have changed governments four times in the last six elections.
Tory additionally is helped because he has promised to make his Conservatives radically different from those under premiers Mike Harris and later Ernie Eves that were rejected by voters in 2003.
Harris particularly was ultra right-wing in policies and abrasive in style and Tory says he will resemble more the long line of leaders who had moderate policies and style and kept his party in government without a break from 1943-85.
Tory’s chances also have increased because there is no sign the New Democrats are regaining anything like the popularity that won them government in 1990 and the huge deficits they ran up remain a dirty word among voters.
If another party is elected, it would have to be the Conservatives and some are licking their lips at the vision of returning to power as early as the next election in 2007 – dates are now fixed by law for every four years.
Against this, governing parties that were defeated have not returned to power quickly.
The Conservatives took 10 years to win their way back after being pushed out in 1985 and the Liberals 13 years after being defeated in 1990.
New MPPs who entered the legislature amid intense interest – although not as much as now focused on Tory – also have had mixed fortunes.
Bob Rae, who brought a reputation as a brilliant young finance critic in the Commons, made it to premier, a huge feat for a New Democrat, but it took him eight years.
Former food bank director Gerard Kennedy, articulate and photogenic, found many Liberals wanted him as leader when he won a by-election in 1996 in a riding their party had not won in 70 years, but established, cautious party members felt he was too new and left-wing and opted for McGuinty.
Morton Shulman, a coroner who battled the Conservative government and had a TV series modeled after him, was expected to put the fear of death in other parties when he was elected for the NDP in the 1960s, but often lacked facts to support his criticisms and quickly faded.
Tory may find it difficult to offer moderate policies when the Liberals occupy so much of the middle ground.
He will have trouble dissociating himself from his party’s reputation in government of starving services while dining lavishly in the best hotels.
Tory says his Conservatives will win respect by avoiding personal attacks and increasing decorum in debates, but he has an aggressive and raucous caucus which he will have a problem restraining.
The Liberals also have quietly climbed to 44 per cent in the most recent poll, which traditionally has been enough to win a majority.
They have done this by steadily bringing in programs to protect residents including banning smoking in enclosed public spaces and workplaces by next Spring, curbing pit bulls and preserving greenbelt.
These are things earlier Conservatives should have done, but failed, and Tory is now well-known enough he will be asked why.
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