Speculation building over Wynne’s future as Liberal leader

Liberal fundraising is not going well, recruitment is proving difficult and the polls still have Premier Kathleen Wynne in third place.

By ROBERT BENZIE

Will she or won’t she?

Speculation about whether Premier Kathleen Wynne can continue to lead the governing Liberals is at a f‎ever pitch.

Party stalwarts are hoping next week’s balanced ‎budget from Finance Minister Charles Sousa will tip the scales for Wynne’s teetering political fortunes.

But with public and private polling showing the Liberals languishing in third place well behind the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats — even after Wynne’s 25 per cent cut in residential electricity rates — there is mounting uncertainty she will remain at the helm.

The Ontario Liberal Party’s chief fundraiser, Zak Bailey, has quietly resigned just seven months into a job made even more challenging by campaign finance reforms triggered by a Star series last year.

“You’d have to ask the party what their plans are,” Bailey said Monday, declining further comment.

Sources say Liberal fundraising is not going well — now that corporate and union donations have been banned — and that riding associations are rattled.

Recruiting a candidate for a byelection expected this summer in Liberal-held Sault Ste. Marie is proving difficult — to say nothing of attracting scores of Grit standard-bearers for the June 7, 2018 election.

If the premier is unable to pull her personal poll numbers out of a tailspin before the House rises in six weeks then salvaging a Liberal administration that dates back to 2003 could be daunting without a leadership change.

“I like to say that I live in world of heightened advice right now,” Wynne wryly admitted to Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area mayors and regional chairs last week in a candid moment that revealed the pressure she’s under.

Behind closed doors in the Liberal caucus room, MPPs apologetically share with her their constituents’ views.

“They just don’t like you‎, premier,” one veteran MPP gently told her within earshot of other members. “I do, but they don’t and I don’t know why.”

It’s a sentiment that Wynne — who remains both liked and respected by most of her caucus colleagues — may finally be starting to take to heart even as she insists she plans to lead the Liberals into the next campaign.

“She will do the right thing for the Ontario Liberal Party,” confided one intimate, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal party matters.

“The premier won us the last election (in 2014) and we know that. But the dislike toward her now — unfair and undeserved as it is — borders on the irrational,” said another Liberal.

Sources told the Star that more than a dozen MPPs are looking at not running again in the 2018 election over fears they will lose their seats due to her unpopularity.

No MPPs will yet speak publicly about the potential exodus — more out of their personal regard for Wynne than‎ due to a fear of retribution.

But some are known to be considering an appeal to her en masse‎ to share their worries about the future.

“There’s no way we should lose to Patrick Brown — he’s an empty suit with no plan,” fumed one long-time member‎, referring to the little-known rookie Progressive Conservative leader who polls suggest could win the election.

“If our vote collapses, there’s a very real possibility Andrea Horwath could be the next premier of Ontario,” warned another Liberal, predicting the New Democrats would benefit if progressives abandon the Liberals to stop Brown’s Tories.

“Andrea is more dangerous to us than Patrick.”

Sousa, the Liberals’ happy warrior, is bullish on his boss and on the party’s future after he tables a balanced budget chock full of campaign-friendly goodies on April 27.

“The premier is doing an outstanding job. She cares. She’s deliberated over a number of tough files and issues and I have full confidence in her and my colleagues in the party to do what’s best for the people of Ontario,” the treasurer said last Thursday.

“We have been an activist centre government. We’re looking at stimulating growth, managing spending, and ensuring greater prosperity for the people of Ontario,” he said.

Sousa stressed he’s “confident that the people of Ontario will come to appreciate — and have already appreciated — the work we do.”

“They elected her to a majority government; I believe they’ll elect her again.”

Wynne’s predecessor, Dalton McGuinty, who turned over the reins four years ago, once likened the role of a premier to a political party’s “liver” that absorbs toxins.

“And one of your responsibilities on the way out is to take those (toxins) with you,” McGuinty told Robyn Bresnahan on CBC Radio’s Ottawa Morning in 2015, “and to leave your successor a fighting chance.”

Having turned down the political heat on hydro with the 25 per cent rate cut that takes full effect in June and eliminated a stubborn deficit as of next week’s budget, one Liberal insider said Wynne could depart “with her head held high.”